SEA Seahawks VS ARI Cardinals
SEA Seahawks VS ARI Cardinals
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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle took advantage of a rookie QB to get 5 INTs and a 32-20 win against Detroit last week to get within two games of first place in the NFC West. Arizona and QB Kurt Warner got back on track against Chicago last Sunday with a 41-21 drubbing of the Bears. Just one week after Warner threw 5 INTs, he responded with 5 TD passes, falling back into what Arizona expects from their timing and rhythm-based passer. Rookie RB Chris Wells looked good once again and can provide Arizona with tough, inside running. But expect RB Tim Hightower to keep getting more reps, as he’s a physical blocker and the better pass-catching back on a pass-happy team. Seattle will continue to employ an offense that’s based on scheme for its wide receivers to get open. Individually, they can’t win battles to get themselves open on routes, so the plays must be designed to get them open. In the first matchup, Arizona was aggressive on defense and forced Seattle’s offense into numerous mistakes. The same thing will happen this time around, but Seattle will at least put some points on the board in the rematch – too bad the outcome will be the same. Take the Cardinals and the OVER 47
Refs:
Weather: Sunny- Precip: 0%, 63°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, NNE at 5.0 mph
Pick: Take Cardinals -8
Winner
KC Chiefs VS OAK Raiders
KC Chiefs VS OAK Raiders
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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Former KC starting RB Larry Johnson was released by the Chiefs this week and RBs Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles, just like any other human beings with a pair of properly working feet, should be capable of at least matching, if not out-producing LJ’s 2.7 rushing average. The Chiefs have also added WR Chris Chambers, and he was able to produce a pair of TDs last week and Lance Long made his presence known in the Chiefs’ 24-21 loss to the Jaguars last Sunday, with 8 receptions. Look for the Chiefs to attempt to use Long as a poor-man’s Wes Welker at wideout to keep the chains moving while looking for Bowe or Chambers in the redzone. Meanwhile, things are uglier in Oakland since they still have to live with JaMarcus Russell as their QB – arguably the worst QB in the NFL. The Raiders do expect to get RB Darren McFadden back, and he is expected to split a majority of the touches with Justin Fargas, ahead of Michael Bush. But he won’t save a floundering offense and was barely noticeable when he was healthy at the start of the season. Over the past few years KC has gone into rival Oakland’s backyard and issued an upset – and they should be able to do it again here after showing some competiveness over the last few weeks. They may be lost, but they aren’t “Raiders” lost. Take the Chiefs to win.
Refs:
Weather: Sunny – Precip: 0%, 59°F – Wind Impact: CALM, WNW at 2.0 mph
Pick: Take Kansas City +1.5
Winner
BUF Bills VS TEN Titans
BUF Bills VS TEN Titans
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Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
The Titans are on a two-game winning streak after taking care of the 49ers on the road last week, 34-27. The wins have coincided with QB Vince Young’s first two starts of the season, but they have come behind the strength of RB Chris Johnson. CB Cortland Finnegan’s return has helped spark a tremendous turnaround, defensively, and overall Tennessee is now executing the brand of football that the team wants to play. They’re taking the game out of their QB’s hands and keeping the ball on the ground. Look for this to continue against a Bill defense that’s been the worst against the run over the last four weeks. Still, defenses must allocate bodies to the QB because Young is able to run it as well. Tennessee is now just 2-6, but a turnaround has to start somewhere. Meanwhile, the Bills are looking forward to the return of QB Trent Edwards (concussion). Although Buffalo went 2-1 without him, that was in large part due to the fortune of facing teams with QBs playing terribly at the moment (the Jets’ Mark Sanchez and Carolina’s Jake Delhomme). The Bills sit at 3-5 after a 31-10 drubbing by the Texans in Week Eight before a bye last weekend. And they’ll take another humbling defeat here against a Titans team who is on the upswing in a major way. Take the Titans to cover.
Refs: John Parry’s crew will be working the game in Tennessee. In John’s games, this year, the home team has scored an average of 5.8 more points than Vegas predictions.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy – Precip: 10%, 68°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, SW at 5.0 mph
Pick: Take Titans -6.5
Winner
NO Saints VS STL Rams
NO Saints VS STL Rams
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New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams
The Rams got their first win of the year against the Lions, 17-10, before going on bye last weekend. They come into this matchup rested but there’s not much a bye will do for a lack of talent. Expect to see a lot of RB Steven Jackson, who’s third in the NFL with 98.0 YPG – but he’s not going to be enough. The Saints are undefeated for the entire season after erasing a 17-3 deficit to come back and beat the Panthers 30-20 last Sunday. QB Drew Brees rightfully grabs the headlines but New Orleans is actually the most balanced run/pass team in the NFL. Unlike the Dallas Cowboys, the Saints know how to properly rotate their three talented RBs, with Pierre Thomas leading the charge. WR Marques Colston is still “the guy” when it comes to the passing game but fellow wideout Robert Meachem appears to be getting a better understanding of this complicated Sean Payton offense. The Saints are too talented on both sides of the ball and they will glide easily to a win here. Take the Saints in a blowout.
Refs:
Weather: Indoors at the Edward Jones Dome
Pick: Take Saints -13.5
Loser
CIN Bengals VS PIT Steelers
CIN Bengals VS PIT Steelers
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Each of these 6-2 teams is playing at a high level right now and the winner of this week’s battle will stand alone atop the AFC North. The Steelers have won five straight, after disposing of the Broncos at Denver, 28-10, this past Monday. RB Rashard Mendenhall is running hard and moving downfield well. And although the Cincinnati defense is playing with phenomenal discipline and the CBs are doing a solid job, Ben Roethlisberger’s ability to create when plays break down may disrupt the effectiveness of the Bengal unit. Offensively, Cincinnati wants to continue to run the ball behind RB Cedric Benson. They like to use a lot of unbalanced formations, setting up their O-linemen in wing tight end positions to cause defenses to stop and think through their responsibilities. It’s not sexy, but it creates consistent, positive plays in the run game. QB Carson Palmer has been playing as well as we’ve seen since 2005, and he may need to call upon his ability to stare a pass rush in the face and deliver the ball against this strong Steeler D. The difference between this matchup and the one earlier in the year (Bengals win) is that the Steelers are finally healthy with Troy Polamalu back while the Bengals lost their playmaker, Antwan Odom, a few weeks ago to a torn Achilles. The Steelers will exact some revenge here at home and cover the line.
Refs:
Weather: Partly Cloudy – Precip: 10%, 62°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, WSW at 6.0 mph
Pick: Take Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Loser
JAC Jaguars VS NY Jets
JAC Jaguars VS NY Jets
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Jacksonville Jaguars at NY Jets
The Jets are coming off a much-needed bye week and now stand at 4-4 on the season after a 30-25 loss to Miami in Week Eight. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has played much better over his last two contests but don’t think for a second that New York won’t look to pound the ball on the ground again this Sunday. RB Thomas Jones is playing at a high level right now, and the Jaguars can be beaten on the ground (near the bottom of the league in run defense). Also Jet WR Jerricho Cotchery, who’s missed time due to injury, will be returning in this game to provide another weapon for Sanchez. It may not seem like much but Sanzhez has sorely missed his go to guy in key situations. Defensively, expect New York to pin CB Darrelle Revis against Jag wideout Mike Sims-Walker, and although Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been great for fantasy purposes this season by garnering long runs, he’s not been able to get consistent 5- and 7-yard carries to sustain drives. Jacksonville also stands at 4-4 after its 24-21 win against the lowly Chiefs last Sunday. They received quality play from QB David Garrard, but he’s as much of a week-to-week player as there can be. If the Jets can get pressure on him (see KC game last week), Garrard’s chances of having a solid game are greatly reduced. In the end the Jets need this game more than Jacksonville and they will be prepared coming off a bye. Take the Jets to cover.
Refs:
Weather: Cloudy – Precip: 10%, 61°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, NNE at 5.0 mph
Pick: Take NY Jets -6.5
Loser
DET Lions VS MIN Vikings
DET Lions VS MIN Vikings
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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off a bye with a 7-1 record, defeating Green Bay 38-26 in their previous game. The Lions, meanwhile, are just 1-7, after they fell to Seattle by a 32-20 count last Sunday. When these two teams played back in Week Two, the Lions made a major commitment to direct pressure at QB Brett Favre. The Lions constantly blitzed, played Cover Zero, and did their best to make Favre uncomfortable. Although the Viking QB completed 23 of 27 passes, he totaled only 155 yards. That said, it will be interesting to see if the Lions apply the same concepts this week since they worked so well. Conversely, Lion rookie QB Matthew Stafford has a non-existent run game to turn to, with a banged up Kevin Smith providing little in the way of production this season. And although WR Calvin Johnson returned from injury last week, the learning curve of a QB-WR rapport is still apparent, as Stafford threw 5 INTs. That said, the Lions have a knack for playing Minnesota well (division rivals) and they should be able to keep it somewhat competitive. Take the Lions to cover the line.
Refs:
Weather: Indoors at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Pick: Take Lions +17
Push
ATL Falcons VS CAR Panthers
ATL Falcons VS CAR Panthers
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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers blew a 17-3 lead at New Orleans last week to lose 30-20. Carolina now stands at 3-5 on the season, but after a rough beginning to the year, they’re now getting back to the foundations that made them a 12-4 team a season ago. And, to be fair, the Saints are one of just two remaining undefeated teams out there right now. But Carolina is running the ball effectively behind RB DeAngelo Williams and the defense is playing at a high level. DE Julius Peppers is attacking each snap with a consistent tenacity that we haven’t previously seen from him. The loss of LB Thomas Davis will hurt, however, and the Falcon run game has been on fire the past two weeks behind Michael Turner. On the other side, Atlanta defeated lowly Washington 31-17 at home last week to improve to 5-3. But QB Matt Ryan’s been unable to throw the ball downfield consistently this year, and it appears as though he’s perceiving pressure that isn’t always really there. As long as Carolina QB Jake Delhomme continues to not throw INTs to the opponent, which he’s managed to avoid in two straight games now, the Panthers will succeed here. It should be noted, however, that Williams is dealing with a knee issue this week. If this becomes a problem on game day, RB Jonathan Stewart will need to be prepared for a heavier work load; and he is fully capable. Carolina is clicking right now like they always do about this time of the season – the same can’t be said about the slumping Falcons. Take the Panthers to cover here at home.
Refs:
Weather: Mostly Sunny – Precip: 10%, 68°F – Wind Impact: CALM, W at 2.0 mph
Pick: Take Panthers +1
Winner
NE Patriots VS IND Colts Over/Under
NE Patriots VS IND Colts
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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
It’s never easy to know what Patriot HC Bill Belichick is going to do on any given week, but it appears as though New England wants to get back to its 2007 ways with the spread offense. QB Tom Brady can be effective in this type of system as he has the ability to minimize a defense’s pass rush by processing information quickly and getting the ball out of his hands just as fast. RB Laurence Maroney did have 20 carries last week, but New England believes it can create a sustaining run game if necessary. The Indy secondary will have to face route recognition problems that the Patriots will likely employ, as the Texans were able to get some big plays by doing just that last Sunday against the Colts. Meanwhile, all Indianapolis did was stay perfect at 8-0, with a 20-17 win against the Texans. Still, the Colts are walking a precarious line with QB Peyton Manning throwing the ball 40 times on 50 plays in the first half last week. TE Dallas Clark should have opportunities against Patriot LBs, but the Colts may need to be able to run the ball with RBs Joseph Addai and a returning Donald Brown this Sunday. In the end, the Colts have regressed in recent weeks, while the Patriots are seemingly improving. The difference in this one will be the Indy injuries in the secondary, as Tom Brady and company have their way early and then grind it out late with the run to play keep away from Manning. The play is the Patriots and the UNDER.
Refs: Scott Green’s crew will be working the game in Indianapolis. Scott’s team has a 60% win rate for the visiting team this year.
Weather: Indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium
Pick: Take UNDER 50
Loser
DAL Cowboys VS GB Packers Over/Under
DAL Cowboys VS GB Packers Over/Under
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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
The Cowboys went to Philadelphia last week and took down the Eagles 20-16 to claim their fourth straight win and sole possession of first place in the NFC East at 6-2. By contrast, Green Bay traveled to previously winless Tampa Bay last Sunday and fell to the Buccaneers 38-28, to drop to .500 on the season. The Packers are clearly struggling right now, offensively, defensively, and even on special teams. Green Bay had a punt blocked and returned for a TD last week and gave up an 83-yard return in the kicking game. On defense, the players are struggling with DC Dom Caper’s complex schemes and offensively, Aaron Rodgers is breaking down in the pocket when he doesn’t have to. The Cowboys defense, led by DE Jay Ratliff and LB DeMarcus Ware, has been playing at a much improved level from the beginning of the year and should be able to give the Packer O-line significant problems. Although the Cowboys attempted to be more of a run team this year, they never figured out how to properly use their three talented backs. And the emergence of WR Miles Austin combined with a more controlled QB Tony Romo has shifted the Cowboys back to a more pass-oriented, offensive approach. This matchup leans towards the Cowboys in a shootout.
Refs: Jeff Triplette’s crew will be working the game in Green Bay. Jeff’s team, this year, the home team has scored an average of 4.6 fewer points than Vegas predictions.
Weather: Sunny – Precip: 0%, 45°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, NNW at 10.0 mph
Pick: Take OVER 47.5
Loser
