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RingMe

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/21 2009

BUF Bills VS JAC Jaguars

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville passed the .500 mark for the first time this season, with a 24-22 win on the road against the Jets last Sunday. The news for Buffalo this past week, well, it was a little less positive. First, the Bills fell 41-17 to the Titans, meaning they’ve now been outscored 72-27 in their last two weeks. Then, back-up QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was announced as the team’s starter on Wednesday, despite QB Trent Edwards’ having just returned last week from a concussion. Just hours later, HC Dick Jauron was fired by the organization. Yikes. The Bills are giving up 179 yards per game on the ground over their last 4 games, and the Jags happen to have a guy who should be able to take advantage of that statistic in RB Maurice Jones-Drew. So while QB David Garrard is erratic, he shouldn’t have too much asked of him this Sunday. With regard to the Bill ground game, it’s curious to see if interim HC Perry Fewell will want to employ RB Fred Jackson as the team’s featured back. He played at a very high level at the beginning of the season while RB Marshawn Lynch was serving a league-imposed suspension. Since Lynch’s return, Buffalo hasn’t got the same type of production out of its backfield, with Lynch receiving the majority of the workload. In the end it won’t really matter though as Buffalo’s season is over, where as the Jags are trending up. Take Jacksonville to cover the line.

Refs:

Weather: Scattered T-Storms; Temperature: 74 degrees; Winds: 6 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 50%.

Pick: Take Jaguars -8.5

Loser

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/21 2009

NY Jets VS NE Patriots

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NY Jets at New England Patriots

The Jets fell to the Jaguars 24-22 last week and now stand beneath .500 for the first time this year at 4-5. QB Mark Sanchez continues to look uncomfortable in the pocket and the Jet defense became a function of what the Jaguars dictated on offense. New York got credit early in the season for being a hard-nosed, defensive unit. But really the Jets are all about scheme, energy, and blitzing. The Jags’ formations last Sunday discouraged New York from being who it wants to be. And if Jacksonville can do it, we know that New England is more than capable as well. On the other side, look for the Pats to try to use 6 O-linemen to discourage blitzes this Sunday. The first time these two met earlier this season, Patriot QB Tom Brady still wasn’t playing like his old self after coming back from knee surgery. And he didn’t have the services of WR Wes Welker in that game either. Defensively, the Jets have lost DT Kris Jenkins since the team’s first meeting and that could hurt their ability to stop the run. New England will get revenge in this game for the L the Jets gave them at the start of the season. Take the Pats to cover.

Refs:

Weather: Partly Cloudy; Temperature: 48 degrees; Winds: 8 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 20%. Weather should not come into play in this game.

Pick: Take Patriots -11.5

Winner

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/21 2009

PIT Steelers VS KC Chiefs

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Pittsburgh Steelers at KC Chiefs

The Steeler offense put together its worst game of the year in losing to Cincinnati last week. The Bengals out-schemed Pittsburgh en route to an 18-12 win that dropped the Steelers to second place in the AFC North at 6-3. QB Ben Roethlisberger never got comfortable with what he saw and reverted to bad habits. Pittsburgh lacked a balanced attack as it threw the ball 40 times but handed the ball off just 16 times. Look for RB Rashard Mendenhall to get going again this Sunday. It appears the Chiefs are simply not good enough in scheme or talent to be capable of causing the Steelers similar problems this week. Offensively, Matt Cassel loses help from top WR Dwayne Bowe, who will begin serving his four-game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs. This is a big loss for KC as he was their only real weapon. And even though KC looked good in running the ball behind Jamaal Charles last week, Pittsburgh’s rush defense is easily the best in the NFL, allowing just 69.3 YPG. KC has no chance in this game – take the Steelers to cover the large line in a blow out.

Refs: Carl Cheffers’ crew will be working the game in Kansas City. In games that Carl refs the road team has won 62% of the time.

Weather: Cloudy; Temperature: 54 degrees; Winds: 7 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 0%. Weather should not come into play in this game.

Pick: Take Steelers -10

Loser

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/21 2009

SF 49ERS VS GB Packers

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The Packers did bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay with a solid 17-7 win against Dallas last week, and that was led by a strong defensive effort. LB Clay Matthews stood out on film, and CB Charles Woodson looked like a dominant player. Green Bay is now 5-4 and can’t afford to let up against a 4-5 San Francisco squad that just ended its 4-game losing streak last week. San Francisco was aided by 5 INTs of Bear QB Jay Cutler as the 49ers won 10-6. The 49ers played fast on defense, but offensively, QB Alex Smith is reverting to habits that contributed to his label as a bust for the better part of his career. Fortunately for Smith, RB Frank Gore continues to look good pounding the ball on the ground but it won’t be enough on the road this week to get the win. Play the Packers to cover the spread.

Refs: Scott Green’s crew will be working the game in Green Bay. In games Scott has done this season the home team has won 75%.

Weather: Clear; Temperature: 45 degrees; Winds: 11 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 0%. Weather should not come into play in this game.

Pick: Take Packers -6

Push

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/19 2009

Thursday Night Football MIA Dolphins VS CAR Panthers 2 Team Parlay Play

MIA Dolphins VS CAR Panthers

This is a 2 TEAM PARLAY PLAY. You will receive the game pick and the over/under pick for the same cost of one pick.

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Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been getting back to what they do well, running behind RB’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The loss of LT Jordan Gross is notable, but the Panthers should still be able to continue their ground attack. QB Jake Delhomme has protected the football, not throwing an INT in three straight games now. And the defense has raised its level of play holding opponents in check over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, Miami defeated Tampa Bay last week to get within one game of .500 on the season. But it came at a price as RB Ronnie Brown injured his foot and is ruled out for this contest. This is a major loss as he was the heartbeat of the team and the one who led their offense in the Wildcat formations. The loss of Brown means the Dolphins will have to run a more traditional offense with rookie QB Chad Henne and over-the-hill RB Ricky Williams. Add in the fact that the Dolphins have had a short week to cope with the loss and you have a recipe for disaster on offense. Look for the Panthers to keep it going and put up enough points to cover the line here.

Refs: Walt Anderson’s crew will be working the game in Carolina. Games in which Walt’s crew has officiated this year have gone UNDER the total 71% of the time. Also, as we witnessed last week, teams who play on a short week generally look sluggish. The play is the UNDER.

Weather: Clear; Temperature: 55 degrees; Winds: 3 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 0%. Weather should not come into play in this game.

Pick: Take Panthers -3
Loser
Pick: Take UNDER 43.5
Winner

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/15 2009

Monday Night Football BAL Ravens VS CLE Browns

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Last week in Baltimore’s 17-7 loss to Cincinnati QB Joe Flacco played terribly, the wide receivers weren’t able to create any separation against the Bengal secondary, and Ray Rice got only 12 carries. The Ravens have had some breakdowns along the offensive line this season as Flacco has been sacked 16 times already and has also been pressured into throwing the ball away. Cleveland DC Rob Ryan has been using more confusing formations and movement within his unit to help offset his players’ lack of ability, akin to the Bengal defense. Look for the Browns to slow down the Ravens on offense and not let this game get out of hand. On offense, the Browns are reverting back to 3rd-year QB Brady Quinn to start this week after the Derek Anderson experience played out even uglier than predicted. This will be an added spark for the Browns who were floundering under the leadership of Anderson. Also there was another shakeup during the bye week for the Browns
in which general manager George Kokinis was fired and the Cleveland media is whispering Mangini could be next. The first-year Browns coach has not endeared himself with a 1-7 start, but a win over the rival Ravens would go a long way toward helping Mangini gain some credibility. The Browns may not get that victory on Monday night, but they will be competitive enough to keep the score within double digits after two weeks of preparation – after all this is their Super Bowl on prime time TV. Take the Browns and the points.

Refs: Carl Cheffers’ crew will be working the game in Cleveland. Carl’s squad is near the bottom in penalties called per game, but he has favored the home team in calls when he has had to throw the flag. Look for the Browns to get a few breaks tonight from the refs.

Weather: Cloudy – Precip: 20%, 48°F – Wind Impact: MEDIUM, NNE at 13.0 mph. This sets up to be a low scoring cold weather game which will favor the underdog. Don’t look for too much passing in this weather.

Pick: Take Under 38.5

Winner

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/15 2009

NE Patriots VS IND Colts

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

It’s never easy to know what Patriot HC Bill Belichick is going to do on any given week, but it appears as though New England wants to get back to its 2007 ways with the spread offense. QB Tom Brady can be effective in this type of system as he has the ability to minimize a defense’s pass rush by processing information quickly and getting the ball out of his hands just as fast. RB Laurence Maroney did have 20 carries last week, but New England believes it can create a sustaining run game if necessary. The Indy secondary will have to face route recognition problems that the Patriots will likely employ, as the Texans were able to get some big plays by doing just that last Sunday against the Colts. Meanwhile, all Indianapolis did was stay perfect at 8-0, with a 20-17 win against the Texans. Still, the Colts are walking a precarious line with QB Peyton Manning throwing the ball 40 times on 50 plays in the first half last week. TE Dallas Clark should have opportunities against Patriot LBs, but the Colts may need to be able to run the ball with RBs Joseph Addai and a returning Donald Brown this Sunday. In the end, the Colts have regressed in recent weeks, while the Patriots are seemingly improving. The difference in this one will be the Indy injuries in the secondary, as Tom Brady and company have their way early and then grind it out late with the run to play keep away from Manning. The play is the Patriots and the UNDER.

Refs: Scott Green’s crew will be working the game in Indianapolis. Scott’s team has a 60% win rate for the visiting team this year.

Weather: Indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium

Pick: Take Patriots +3

Winner

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/15 2009

PHI Eagles VS SD Chargers Over/Under

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You will recieve a complete write up on the game, Injury report, weather report, and stats on the referee crew. All this will be sent to you via email or you can view the info on the website once you have made the purchase.

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Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers

After a terrific week against the Giants two Sundays ago, the Eagles had no rhythm whatsoever last Sunday in their 20-16 loss to the Cowboys. QB Donovan McNabb’s throws were inconsistent last week, and he’s the one person who needs to be on his game if the Eagles are going to put up points. And this week should be the good McNabb – think Jekyll and Hyde. The Eagles will certainly have their chances on offense, going up against a less-than-average Charger secondary with good scheming route combinations that HC Andy Reid calls. On the other side for the Eagles, things should be easy as well since Chargers Charger starting C Nick Hardwick is still out with injury. The Achilles Heel of the Chargers has been their protection issues against solid pass rushes, and Philly definitely qualifies. Take the Eagles in a shootout.

Refs:

Weather: Sunny – Precip: 0%, 71°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, NNE at 6.0 mph

Pick: Take OVER 47

Winner

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/15 2009

PHI Eagles VS SD Chargers

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Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers

Refs:

Weather: Sunny – Precip: 0%, 71°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, NNE at 6.0 mph

Pick: Take Eagles +2.5

Loser

Posted in NFL, Picks

11/15 2009

SEA Seahawks VS ARI Cardinals Over/Under

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle took advantage of a rookie QB to get 5 INTs and a 32-20 win against Detroit last week to get within two games of first place in the NFC West. Arizona and QB Kurt Warner got back on track against Chicago last Sunday with a 41-21 drubbing of the Bears. Just one week after Warner threw 5 INTs, he responded with 5 TD passes, falling back into what Arizona expects from their timing and rhythm-based passer. Rookie RB Chris Wells looked good once again and can provide Arizona with tough, inside running. But expect RB Tim Hightower to keep getting more reps, as he’s a physical blocker and the better pass-catching back on a pass-happy team. Seattle will continue to employ an offense that’s based on scheme for its wide receivers to get open. Individually, they can’t win battles to get themselves open on routes, so the plays must be designed to get them open. In the first matchup, Arizona was aggressive on defense and forced Seattle’s offense into numerous mistakes. The same thing will happen this time around, but Seattle will at least put some points on the board in the rematch – too bad the outcome will be the same. Take the Cardinals and the OVER 47

Refs:

Weather: Sunny- Precip: 0%, 63°F – Wind Impact: LIGHT, NNE at 5.0 mph

Pick: Take OVER 47

Winner